Robert Bond Director Citizens for Defence
CITIZENS FOR DEFENCE
Dibbs soothsayer predictions
Ivory Tower professor Paul Dibb assures us a war between the US and China is unlikely and we have no need for 3-4% of GDP defence spending. (Talk of a US-China war “a dangerous miscalculation” the Australian 23/4)
These soothsayers must have a direct line to God if they can predict that Australia has no need for a modern and highly trained defence force.
Why don’t these clairvoyants tell us the strategic risk of a serious clash between major powers in Asia and then we can be reassured? Is Dibbs claiming 0.05%, or 25% or a 50% chance of major hostilities in the next few decades?
Australia needs hard military defence as an insurance policy no matter what the astrologers predict.
A communist country has little regard for trade when the national interest is considered. China is a country that can starve to death millions of its citizens in the name of a cultural revolution and run over its citizens in tanks if they ask for democracy.
For all Dibbs wild predictions of no major Asian conflicts into the future a strong case can be made that there is every chance that there will be violent struggles coming in Asia because the stage is rapidly being set.
China can call on 2.25 million troops in uniform in a conflict with North Korea having a million troops available. Indonesia has a million troops to call on plus numerous militias. Other nations have massive troop numbers for their size as well.
A major clash between North and South Korea is nearly inevitable as nuclear bombs are brought into the equation. If this occurs it is a good bet China will back North Korea as well as taking over Taiwan and the Islands in the South China Sea.
Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Cambodia, Thailand, Japan and other nations have axes to grind and a major blow up will be the ideal time for them to settle the scores.
The US’s ability to control the events would probably be well beyond its capacity.
Australia would be a defenceless continent with limitless natural resources and a small population begging to be invaded or bullied by any assorted coalition of Asian nations. In fact, Indonesia could have had a coup d’état by then or a government takeover by Islamist sympathisers and could easily walk into a defenceless Australia.
It is hard to fathom why defence analysts continue to decry any need for Australia to increase its defence spending to 4-5% of GDP to match the funds the US is contributing to our security. These analysts are more than ready to have Australia continue on as a sycophant nation without credible defence capability begging for China to like us and expecting the US to defend us if we come into a threatening situation.
Dibbs has no strategic plan except to hope to good luck and continue to be a free loader on the US. If this is analytical cleverness, we want no part of it.
The US, for all the diplomatic niceties it voices, knows the score and has a long memory as it should. Influential US politicians have called us freeloaders and have warned that there can be no “free ride” in defence matters.
If Australia had a fair dinkum strategic plan based on the Israeli model where over thirty years we could continually upgrade the effectiveness of our defence force, we could be capable of defending our continent in most instances if needed with probably a topping up of weapons, missiles, ammunition and other supplies from the US.
Dibbs comments are surely simplistic, and are giving Australia a false sense of security that it has no need of a modern high technology defence force honed to perfection.